What does "red folder" actually mean in this context?
A red folder is the video's term for a scheduled high-impact economic release marked in red on Forex Factory's economic calendar, things like interest rate decisions, non-farm payrolls (NFP), and inflation data. The video says these releases are the main driver of the sudden, unexplained price spikes traders see on their charts.
In the podcast, one host describes his first year of day trading as being almost entirely technical, no news awareness at all, until "the market humbled me a few times." He says learning fundamentals gave him "an overall bias for the week to come," rather than trading day to day on chart patterns alone. The video frames this as the difference between reacting to price and understanding why price is likely to move in the first place.
Forex Factory's calendar (not itself one of the two permitted external sources cited in this article, referenced only as the tool the video describes using) lists three numbers for each red folder event: the forecast, the previous reading, and, once released, the actual figure. The video's approach is built around comparing these three numbers before the release to form a directional bias, then confirming that bias against a technical level on the chart.
How does the video describe preparing for a red folder trade?
The video's process is to identify a technical level the market is approaching, form a fundamental bias from the calendar data, and then wait for the release to either sweep that level or confirm it. Rihari describes this specifically as combining a volume-profile level, weekly or monthly, with the timing of a scheduled release.
He describes it this way: price grinds down toward a level ahead of a red folder, then "when that red folder hits it's just going to sweep all that liquidity." His account of the process, as told in the video, breaks down into these steps:
- Mark the level. Identify a weekly or monthly volume-profile level the market is drifting toward on the higher timeframe.
- Check the calendar data. Look at Forex Factory's forecast and previous figures for the upcoming red folder to form an initial view on whether the release is likely to help or hurt the currency.
- Build a probability view. Rihari says he compares how similar releases behaved historically, and describes feeding the same monthly data into ChatGPT to get a quick summary of analyst commentary and prior seasonal patterns as a sense check, not as a signal generator.
- Wait for price to reach the level. The trade setup, as described, depends on price actually arriving near the marked level before the release, not on the news alone.
- Decide when to enter. Either take the initial spike as the release hits, or, as Jordan describes, wait to see if a tradeable structure forms afterward on the retracement.
- Manage the risk of the specific move. The video does not describe a fixed stop-loss rule for this setup; it describes reading price action live and reacting, which carries its own execution risk in fast-moving conditions.
This is a description of one trader's process as told in the podcast, not a guaranteed method, and it assumes a level of chart-reading experience the hosts say took them time to build.
Should you trade the initial spike or wait for the move afterward?
The video presents two distinct ways to trade a red folder: taking the first, fastest move as the release hits, or waiting for the market structure to settle afterward and trading that instead. Jordan says his own entry point into news trading was the second approach, not the first.
He explains it directly: "it's nice to get that news move, what you can make in a minute or less, but that was probably my intro into news trading, not necessarily trading that first move but seeing if there was a setup afterward." Rihari agrees, adding that once the initial spike happens, "that comes back to technical, because you can see that structure forming."
The table below summarizes how the video itself describes these two approaches. Neither is presented in the transcript with a stated win rate, and the video gives no numbers to compare them by.
| Approach | What it involves, per the video | How the video describes the risk | |---|---|---| | Trading the initial spike | Entering at or immediately after the red folder release, aiming to capture the fastest part of the move | Described as requiring a level already marked before the news, since spreads and volatility widen sharply the moment the release hits | | Waiting for post-news structure | Letting the initial spike play out, then trading the retracement or continuation once a chart pattern forms | Described as the entry point Jordan says he used starting out, avoiding the fastest and least predictable seconds of the move |
Which real news events does the video use as examples?
Rihari points to specific past events, gold's reaction to COVID-19 in 2020, the 2022 Ukraine war, the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, and the 2023 Israel-Gaza war, as recurring cases where a world event produced the same technical pattern on the gold chart: a sharp push to a new high.
He describes personally trading two of these. On the Ukraine war move, he says he was boarding a flight in Queenstown, saw gold spike on his phone, entered a sell around 2063, and says he was "up about 8%" before landing and finding the price had fallen further. On the Israel-Gaza war in October, he describes entering a buy around 1832 once markets opened that Monday, in five lots, and says gold has not returned to that level since.
These are Rihari's own recollections of specific past trades as told in the video. They describe outcomes on individual trades at specific historical dates and price levels; they are not a verified trading record, an audited account statement, or evidence of a repeatable or typical result. The video does not disclose position sizing relative to account size, total risk taken, or any losing trades from the same period, so these anecdotes cannot be read as a complete picture of the strategy's performance.
The video also uses two more recent examples to make the same point about fundamentals driving price. It describes Nvidia's stock falling sharply after news of a competing, lower-cost Chinese AI model (DeepSeek) reduced perceived demand for Nvidia's chips, framing it as a fundamentals-driven move dressed up as a technical one. It separately describes gold ranging and gold volume increasing through 2025 alongside the video's characterization of central bank buying and Trump-era tariff announcements, again presented as the fundamental backdrop for chart moves the hosts say they were tracking at the time.
How risky is news trading, based on independent data?
Separate from anything claimed in the video, regulatory data on Australian retail CFD trading paints a difficult picture for retail traders generally. According to ASIC Report 828: Risky business, 68% of Australian retail CFD investors lost money in the 2024 financial year.
That figure covers CFD trading broadly, not red folder news trading specifically, and it is not drawn from or connected to any account or platform mentioned in the video. It is included here because red folder trading, as described in the video, typically uses fast-moving, leveraged instruments (forex and gold CFDs) during the highest-volatility minutes of the trading day, which is the same category of product ASIC's data covers. Wider spreads, faster price movement, and slippage around scheduled releases are all factors that can make execution harder in exactly the conditions this strategy targets.
None of the personal trade outcomes described in the video change what this independent data shows about outcomes for the broader population of retail CFD traders.
Why does the size of the forex market matter for a single news release?
The forex market's US$9.6 trillion average daily OTC turnover, recorded in the BIS 2025 Triennial Survey for April 2025, is why a single scheduled release can move price sharply within seconds. Even a small share of a market that size, concentrated into one moment, produces the fast candles the video describes.
The video's explanation for why red folders move price so fast rests on liquidity concentrating around a scheduled time. Rihari describes price grinding toward a marked level before a release specifically so that the release can "sweep all that liquidity that it's just made coming down." The BIS figure is cited here only as independent confirmation that the forex market is large and liquid enough, in aggregate, for that kind of concentrated order flow around a release to have an outsized short-term price effect, not as support for any specific trade, entry price, or outcome described in the video.
What tools does the video describe using to read fundamentals?
The video describes two tools: Forex Factory's economic calendar for the forecast, previous, and actual figures on each release, and ChatGPT for summarizing historical seasonal patterns and public analyst commentary ahead of a release. Rihari is explicit that he does not ask ChatGPT to predict direction.
His description: "I'm not asking ChatGPT which way is it going to go, I'm just saying, this is the data, I want to know the probability, and it just rounds it up." He also describes using it to pull unemployment and other economic statistics ahead of releases like NFP, as a way of checking his own read of the calendar data rather than replacing it.
This is a description of the hosts' own workflow as told in the podcast. It is not a claim that either tool produces reliable trading signals, and the video does not describe verifying the accuracy of any ChatGPT-generated summary against the actual news outcome.
Is trading red folder news the same as gambling?
Trading red folder news isn't automatically gambling, according to the video's hosts — it only looks that way, in their view, without a fundamental bias paired to a marked technical level. Combining the two, they argue, creates a structured setup rather than a random bet. This reflects the speakers' opinion and experience, not independently verified data.
Rihari says that when he first saw someone trading red folders, "I was like, man, this guy's crazy, he's a gambler," before coming to see it as an edge once paired with technical levels. The video also acknowledges the opposite view exists widely on social media, describing traders who "bag fundamentals" and treat news trading as unpredictable gambling, without settling that disagreement with any data beyond the hosts' own trade recollections.
Whatever view a trader takes on this question, the independent facts above still apply: most Australian retail CFD traders lost money in FY2024 per ASIC, and any red folder strategy is executed inside a market moving trillions of dollars a day per BIS, conditions that widen spreads and increase slippage risk regardless of how a trader interprets the news beforehand.
Which sources support these statistics?
ASIC Report 828 and the Bank for International Settlements 2025 Triennial Survey support the cited statistics. They report market-wide CFD-loss and foreign-exchange-turnover data, not evidence that a trading method, educator or reader will obtain any particular result.
- ASIC Report 828: Risky business — 68% of retail CFD investors lost money in FY24.
- Bank for International Settlements 2025 Triennial Survey — OTC FX turnover reached US$9.6 trillion per day in April 2025.
What questions do readers ask about this topic?
The answers below address the adjacent practical questions readers ask after reviewing the article and its source material. Each answer describes the available evidence and does not replace an independent review of current terms, risks or personal circumstances.
What does a red folder mean on an economic calendar?
The video uses "red folder" to describe a high-impact scheduled release on Forex Factory's economic calendar, such as an interest rate decision or a jobs report. The video says these are the events most likely to cause sharp, fast price moves in currency pairs and gold.
Did Rihari guarantee profits from trading red folder events?
No. Rihari describes a single Apex account trade that he says made him roughly $20,000, and a separate gold trade he says returned about 8% in 30 minutes. These are personal accounts of individual trades as told in the video, not a verified track record, a typical result, or a promise of future income.
What is the OCR mentioned in the video, and why does it matter?
The video refers to the OCR, New Zealand's official cash rate, as an example of a red folder interest rate decision worth watching for NZD pairs. The speakers say a lower-than-expected OCR is generally read as bearish for the New Zealand dollar.
Does the video recommend a specific broker, signal service, or paid course?
The video promotes the hosts' own paid trading education, described in the transcript as "the EP" and "Ambitious Investing," as the place they say they teach fundamentals alongside technicals. This is a promotional claim made by the speakers about their own product, not an independently verified educational outcome or income claim.
How many retail CFD traders actually lose money?
According to [ASIC Report 828: Risky business](https://download.asic.gov.au/media/tq0he35c/rep828-published-20-january-2026.pdf), 68% of Australian retail CFD investors lost money in the 2024 financial year. This is an independently verified regulatory finding, separate from anything claimed in the video.
Is the forex market large enough for a single news event to move it?
The [BIS 2025 Triennial Survey](https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx25_fx.pdf) recorded average daily OTC foreign-exchange turnover of US$9.6 trillion in April 2025. The video argues that around scheduled red folder releases, order flow concentrates sharply enough in a short window to produce the fast, large candles the speakers describe seeing on gold and currency charts.
Which RihariFX videos support this article?
The embedded RihariFX videos and their original English transcripts are the primary sources for the source-video claims in this article. They record what was said in each video and do not independently verify performance, price, licensing or typical results.