How do you trade gold during a CPI news release?
Rihari says he checks the economic calendar for the CPI forecast beforehand, watches whether the actual release comes in above or below that forecast, and waits for price action on lower timeframes to confirm a momentum shift before opening a gold trade.
He does not treat the number itself as a trade signal. In the video he pulls up an economic calendar tool ahead of the release and reads off the forecast for core inflation, shown as 0.2% in that session, alongside an "if above, if below" playbook the tool provides. Rihari says a print above forecast is bullish for the US dollar and, because gold "often does the opposite" to the dollar, bearish for gold. A print below forecast he treats as the reverse: dollar-bearish and gold-bullish. He is explicit that this is only a starting bias, not the entry itself. He waits for the market to open, watches the reaction on the opening candle, and only builds a trade once price structure lines up with that directional bias.
Why does gold typically move opposite to a CPI surprise?
The video's logic rests on a simple relationship: US inflation data that beats forecasts tends to strengthen the US dollar, and a stronger dollar tends to push gold down, while an inflation miss tends to weaken the dollar and lift gold. Rihari frames this as his reason for expecting a specific direction before the release.
In this session the forecast for core inflation was 0.2%, and Rihari's calendar tool spelled out the same "higher reading strengthens USD" logic he was relying on. He said plainly that he does not need the deeper explanation behind that mechanic, only the direction it implies for gold. This is presented as his personal shorthand for forming a bias, not a guaranteed rule, and the same session went on to show that bias breaking down once other headlines entered the picture.
What actually happened when Rihari traded this CPI release?
The video shows the release producing an immediate move, then a reversal driven by unrelated oil headlines rather than the CPI number itself, which Rihari says is typical: "CPI is usually wacky."
At the Comex open, Rihari described "bad news with CPI, which should be pushing gold up," and price did push up briefly. Within minutes two oil-related headlines crossed: US Interior Secretary Bernhardt discussing oil reserve releases, and separate comments on a Trump de-escalation that Rihari says sank oil 11% and rallied gold. He called these "a bit of a game changer" for the session and said the combination "threw CPI a little bit." He spent much of the rest of the video watching gold chop in what he called an "indecision" range rather than following through on the initial CPI reaction. By his own account, the session ended without him getting into a clean trade: "I see nothing but a big waste of time."
How does Rihari confirm a trade before entering?
Rihari describes a multi-step confirmation process rather than trading the news print directly. He waits for price structure and volume to agree with his directional bias before risking a trade, and he says skipping this step is how traders lose.
- Check the economic calendar before the release for the forecast figure and the above/below bias it implies.
- Compare the actual print to that forecast to set an initial directional view (dollar up/gold down, or dollar down/gold up).
- Watch the opening candle at the Comex open for the market's first reaction.
- Watch for a liquidity grab, price briefly sweeping through a recent high or low, which Rihari treats as a possible setup for a reversal rather than a signal to chase.
- Wait for a shift in momentum and volume on a lower timeframe, such as the 1-minute or 5-minute chart, in the direction of the original bias.
- Wait for that lower-timeframe candle to close in the expected direction rather than acting mid-candle.
- Stand aside when price is in what Rihari calls "indecision," buyers and sellers fighting without a clear structural shift, rather than force a trade.
How is trading CPI different from trading NFP or FOMC?
Rihari draws a direct contrast in the video: he says CPI reactions are "usually wacky," while events like Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Federal Reserve rate decisions (FOMC) carry more weight and tend to push price firmly in one direction.
| News event | What Rihari says about it | Price behaviour he describes | | --- | --- | --- | | CPI (Consumer Price Index) | "CPI is usually wacky" | Initial move often reverses or chops, especially when other headlines compete for attention | | NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) | Carries "a lot of weight on the market" | Tends to push price in one direction | | FOMC (Federal Reserve decision) | Carries "a lot of weight on the market" | Tends to push price in one direction |
This is Rihari's own characterisation from a single session and should be read as his working view, not an independently measured statistic about how these releases behave on average.
What are the risks of trading gold around CPI news?
The video itself demonstrates the core risk: a trader can correctly anticipate the direction implied by a CPI surprise and still fail to get a clean, profitable trade, because unrelated news and choppy price action can overwhelm the signal. Rihari's own session ended with him unable to find an entry he was happy with.
This matches a wider pattern in retail leveraged trading. ASIC Report 828: Risky business recorded that 68% of Australian retail CFD investors lost money in the 2024 financial year. Gold CFDs are traded through the same kind of leveraged products that report covers, and that 68% figure is an independently reported fact, not a claim made by Rihari or in this video. Trading a fast-moving instrument around a scheduled data release does not change that underlying risk profile.
How big is the market being traded around a CPI release?
Gold moves during CPI releases inside one of the largest and most liquid markets in the world, which is a separate, independently reported fact and not a claim made in the video. The BIS 2025 Triennial Survey reported average daily OTC foreign-exchange turnover of US$9.6 trillion in April 2025.
That scale of turnover is one reason a scheduled release like CPI can produce the fast, sharp moves Rihari describes in the opening minutes, and also why price can reverse quickly once large flows reprice around competing headlines, which is exactly the pattern the video shows playing out in this session.
Which sources support these statistics?
ASIC Report 828 and the Bank for International Settlements 2025 Triennial Survey support the cited statistics. They report market-wide CFD-loss and foreign-exchange-turnover data, not evidence that a trading method, educator or reader will obtain any particular result.
- ASIC Report 828: Risky business — 68% of retail CFD investors lost money in FY24.
- Bank for International Settlements 2025 Triennial Survey — OTC FX turnover reached US$9.6 trillion per day in April 2025.
What questions do readers ask about this topic?
The answers below address the adjacent practical questions readers ask after reviewing the article and its source material. Each answer describes the available evidence and does not replace an independent review of current terms, risks or personal circumstances.
What forecast number does Rihari check before a CPI release?
In the video, Rihari pulls up an economic calendar tool and reads off the forecast for core inflation, shown as 0.2% in that session, before comparing it with the actual print to form a directional bias.
Does a hotter-than-forecast CPI print always push gold down?
Not in this session. Rihari expected a bad CPI print to push gold up, but he says two unrelated oil headlines, comments from US Interior Secretary Bernhardt on oil reserves and separate Trump de-escalation comments, reversed the initial move.
Why does Rihari say CPI is "usually wacky"?
He uses the phrase to describe how gold's reaction to CPI often reverses or chops shortly after the release, in contrast to events like NFP and FOMC, which he says push price more firmly in one direction.
What is a "liquidity grab" in Rihari's framework?
The video shows him watching price briefly sweep through a recent high or low before reversing. He treats that sweep as a possible setup for a trade rather than a reason to enter immediately.
Does Rihari trade the CPI number the moment it is released?
No. He says he waits for the opening candle, then for momentum and volume to shift on a lower timeframe, and for that candle to close in his expected direction, before entering a trade.
Did Rihari end this CPI session with a profitable trade?
The video does not show one. He says the price action was mostly "indecision" and ends the session saying "I see nothing but a big waste of time," without describing a completed, profitable trade.
Is trading gold around news releases safe or reliably profitable?
No. ASIC Report 828 found that 68% of Australian retail CFD investors lost money in the 2024 financial year, and this article makes no claim of income, return, or safety from the approach Rihari describes.
Which RihariFX videos support this article?
The embedded RihariFX videos and their original English transcripts are the primary sources for the source-video claims in this article. They record what was said in each video and do not independently verify performance, price, licensing or typical results.