How do elections affect forex trading?
Elections affect forex trading by increasing volatility as markets price in expected policy shifts before a result and reprice again once the outcome is known. Rihari's trading video shows this pattern directly, with the team watching a tightening US election alongside gold, the US dollar index and Bitcoin.
In the video, filmed from the Gold Coast during a day-in-the-life session, Rihari and his trading partner Slade sit down before a PPI (Producer Price Index) release and talk through their outlook. Partway through that conversation the discussion turns to the upcoming US election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (referred to in the video as Camila). Rihari says the market felt like it was mucking around, his term for sideways, indecisive price action, in the weeks before the vote, and that he expected clearer direction only once the result was known. That description matches the broader idea that election uncertainty can suppress trending moves and widen ranges until the outcome removes one source of ambiguity.
It is worth being precise about what the video actually shows: personal commentary and technical analysis from one trader on one night, not a documented market study. Nothing in the transcript ties a specific currency pair's move to the election result, because the video was recorded before the vote took place.
Why do currency markets move around US elections?
Currency markets move around US elections because traders are repricing expectations for fiscal policy, tax settings and dollar strength tied to each candidate, and that repricing shows up as range-bound or choppy price action until the uncertainty resolves.
Rihari frames this through the US Dollar Index, which traders shorten to DXY (pronounced dexi in the video). He describes the dollar index sitting at a resistance area on the one-hour chart, with unfilled price he calls imbalance sitting above it, and says the broader narrative at the time was that US policymakers were trying to put more value into the dollar. He connects this directly to gold: when DXY strengthens, he says, gold ends up retracing or going bearish, and vice versa. He points to a CPI (Consumer Price Index) release earlier in the week as an example, saying gold sold off that day because the news tried to put value into the dollar index.
Rihari's own conclusion, stated in the video, is that neither the dollar index nor gold had a clean breakout at that point, and that both were stuck in between range because nothing's happening, everything's staying the same. He says he does not expect PPI on its own to be strong enough to push gold through its highs, and instead expects the market to keep mucking around until after the election is decided. This is Rihari's personal technical read for that specific week, not a general rule about how every election affects every currency pair.
How does the US dollar index relate to gold and forex trading?
Rihari links the US Dollar Index and gold through an inverse relationship: when he expects the dollar index to strengthen, he expects gold to weaken, and treats the two as opposite sides of the same directional bias.
He supports this with recent chart history rather than raw prediction. In the video, he recaps gold's repeated failure to break its prior all-time high, going back to the 2020 pandemic period when gold first approached the mid 1900s (in USD per ounce) and was rejected, then rallied into a geopolitical conflict and was rejected again, then rallied a third time around the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and was rejected once more. He says gold finally broke through after climbing from roughly 1,830 following the outbreak of the Israel war in October of the prior year, and that by the time of filming it had reached roughly 2,500, which he counts as its eighth attempt at a fresh high. He frames this as the reason gold is unlikely to fall back quickly, while acknowledging the break had not happened on the night of filming.
This is presented in the video as Rihari's own chart-reading process, built from watching one instrument's history over several years, not as a verified price record. Readers should treat the specific historical price levels as his recollection during a casual conversation in a hotel spa, not as confirmed market data.
What did Rihari say about the 2024 US election and Bitcoin?
The video says other traders online were speculating that a Trump win would send Bitcoin toward roughly $90,000, and that a Harris win would send it down toward roughly $30,000. Rihari repeats this claim from others without stating it as his own forecast or advice.
He adds a short comment of his own on top of that secondhand claim, saying Trump is a business tycoon who would take tax away from the rich and financially value the dollar, and suggesting the market might keep mucking around until the election finished, after which gold could either break its all-time high or fall back toward roughly 2,000. He frames this explicitly as theoretical, saying on camera, let's talk theoretically real quick, before running through the DXY-versus-gold scenario described above.
None of this is a verified market outcome. It is a mix of thirdhand online chatter and one trader's live, hedged speculation, recorded before the election took place. It should not be read as a track record, a prediction that came true, or evidence that trading around elections produces reliable profits.
How should traders prepare for election-driven volatility?
Rihari's video does not lay out an election-specific checklist, but it does show the same repeatable process he uses ahead of any high-impact news release, including the PPI print due later on the night of filming. That process, drawn directly from the video, runs as follows.
- Check a live economic calendar before the session. Rihari uses a tool he calls 4X Factory (Forex Factory) to see every scheduled data release, its forecast and its previous reading.
- Compare the forecast to recent actual readings. On the night of filming, PPI was forecast at 0.2 against a previous reading of 0.0, and Rihari checks several months of past actuals before forming a view.
- Check a broader dollar-strength gauge. He pulls up the US Dollar Index to judge whether the market is leaning toward a stronger or weaker dollar going into the release.
- Cross-reference a correlated instrument. He checks gold against the dollar index to see whether the two are confirming or conflicting with each other.
- Mark specific technical zones rather than reacting to the headline number alone. Earlier in the video he describes missed and taken trades built around pre-marked points of interest, waiting for price to reach a zone before acting.
- Wait for a reaction at that zone instead of entering immediately on the news release itself.
- Size the trade deliberately. Rihari's stated rule, aimed at a viewer considering trading for the first time, is not to risk anything you aren't willing to lose, and to spread a small amount like $100 across a year of trading rather than risking it all in a single week.
What is the difference between trading a normal session and trading around a major news event like an election?
The video draws a practical line between the two: normal sessions are read through pre-marked technical zones, while news and election periods are read through an economic calendar and a dollar-strength gauge first, with technical zones used to confirm a reaction rather than to start the analysis.
| Aspect | Normal session trading (per the video) | Election or major news trading (per the video) | | --- | --- | --- | | Price behavior | Rihari describes clearer directional pushes into pre-marked zones, such as an NZD trade he says ran to roughly 1:3 during the London session | Rihari describes price mucking around and staying range-bound in the days before both the PPI release and the election | | Main reference tool | Technical zones and points of interest on the chart | Forex Factory economic calendar plus the US Dollar Index | | Cost of entry | The bid or ask spread, or a broker commission, which Rihari calls the broker's cut | Same spread or commission mechanic, but Rihari notes it can produce a missed entry if price only wicks the first line and reverses before the second | | Rihari's stated approach | Enter once price reacts at a marked zone | Wait for the news to print, then look for a reaction at a marked zone rather than trading the headline directly | | Session timing he references | London session from around 7pm New Zealand time, used for pairs like EUR/GBP | Same sessions, but releases are pinned to specific times within them, such as PPI later in the New York session |
How risky is forex and CFD trading, and what do the verified numbers show?
Independent regulatory data shows retail traders lose money on leveraged products more often than they profit, and forex itself trades inside an enormous, well-established global market. Both facts are separate from anything said in Rihari's video and come from regulator and central-bank sources rather than from the trading community.
According to ASIC Report 828: Risky business, 68% of Australian retail CFD investors lost money in the 2024 financial year. Forex is commonly traded through CFD-style leveraged products, so that loss rate is directly relevant context for anyone considering trading around a high-volatility event like an election, where price can move further and faster than usual.
At the same time, the market itself is large and liquid. The BIS 2025 Triennial Survey recorded average daily OTC foreign-exchange turnover of US$9.6 trillion in April 2025, reported by the Bank for International Settlements. Scale and liquidity are not the same thing as safety for an individual account; a market can be enormous in aggregate while still producing a majority-loss outcome for retail participants, which is exactly what the ASIC data shows for CFDs.
Rihari's video includes its own caution on this point, separate from the regulatory data. On camera he tells viewers to trade responsibly, and, addressing anyone thinking about trying forex or day trading for the first time, says not to risk anything you aren't willing to lose, and to spread even a small amount like $100 across a year rather than risking it in a single week. That is a personal disclaimer from the video, not a claim about typical outcomes, and it does not offset or contradict the ASIC finding that most Australian retail CFD investors lost money over the most recent reported financial year.
Which sources support these statistics?
ASIC Report 828 and the Bank for International Settlements 2025 Triennial Survey support the cited statistics. They report market-wide CFD-loss and foreign-exchange-turnover data, not evidence that a trading method, educator or reader will obtain any particular result.
- ASIC Report 828: Risky business — 68% of retail CFD investors lost money in FY24.
- Bank for International Settlements 2025 Triennial Survey — OTC FX turnover reached US$9.6 trillion per day in April 2025.
What questions do readers ask about this topic?
The answers below address the adjacent practical questions readers ask after reviewing the article and its source material. Each answer describes the available evidence and does not replace an independent review of current terms, risks or personal circumstances.
Did Rihari predict which way the 2024 US election would move Bitcoin or gold?
No. The video reports that other traders online were speculating Bitcoin would rise toward about $90,000 on a Trump win and fall toward about $30,000 on a Harris win. Rihari frames his own comments on gold and the dollar as theoretical, not a firm prediction, and the video was filmed before the election took place.
What tool does Rihari use to track election and economic news?
He uses Forex Factory, called 4X Factory in the video, an economic calendar that lists scheduled releases along with their forecast and previous readings. He checks it ahead of events such as the PPI release shown in the video.
Does Rihari trade a news release the instant it drops, or wait for a reaction?
The video shows him waiting for price to reach a pre-marked technical zone after a release rather than entering the moment the news drops, and cross-checking the US Dollar Index against gold for a consistent signal first.
What does the broker's cut mean in the video?
Rihari uses the phrase for the spread or commission a broker charges on a trade. He explains that if price only touches the first line of a two-line setup and reverses without reaching the second line, the trade never gets triggered, and that is still the broker's cost mechanic at work.
Is forex or CFD trading likely to be profitable for a beginner around a big event like an election?
The video makes no such claim. Rihari's own advice is to risk only money a viewer can afford to lose and to spread a small amount across a year rather than a week. Separately, ASIC Report 828 found 68% of Australian retail CFD investors lost money in the 2024 financial year, which applies regardless of whether an election is on the calendar.
Which RihariFX videos support this article?
The embedded RihariFX videos and their original English transcripts are the primary sources for the source-video claims in this article. They record what was said in each video and do not independently verify performance, price, licensing or typical results.